Current Status and
Impacts
The center of
Tropical Storm
Debby continues a very slow drift toward the east.
Given this slow movement, Debby's impacts will continue to be weighted
toward locally heavy rainfall and lingering surge flooding.
A little more than 26 inches of rain has been measured from
Debby in hard-hit
Wakulla County, Fla. County
Emergency Management urged no travel Tuesday, with water over many
roads and washouts. Waste-deep water was reported early Tuesday in
Downtown Live Oak, Fla., with evacuations taking place in northern
sections of the city.
Locally heavy rain and flooding will impact parts of north Florida
and south Georgia the next several days. Portions of
northern Florida and southeast Georgia could see
another 3 inches of rain (locally much heavier in
persistent rainbands). Despite pre-existing drought conditions, this
rain will lead to heavy flooding in some areas.
Tropical
storm warnings are posted for parts of the Florida Gulf
Coast. Tropical-storm force winds
(40 mph or higher) are possible in these areas.
Storm
surge
flooding is also a continued threat along the Florida
Panhandle coast
and the western coast of Florida since Debby's circulation is embedded
in a rather large wind field.
Debby's Future: A
Slow Drift, then Atlantic Rebirth?
This is a case where the "landfall" of Debby will be a
relative non-event. The rainbands responsible for the heavy flooding in
north Florida Monday were sheared well to the north and northeast of
the center of circulation. For what it's worth, Debby's center should
cross into north Florida sometime Wednesday.
The combination of wind shear and dry air has taken a toll on
the center of Debby, so Debby is not forecast to "strengthen", per se.
That said, as we mentioned above, the threats of coastal flooding,
local flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes will continue, albeit from a
lesser extent in severity and areal coverage each day.
Debby appears to be responding to the deep jet stream
dip in the eastern United States. This will allow the center to not
only be pulled into north Florida, but eventually emerge into the
Atlantic Ocean Wednesday night or Thursday, where some restrenghthening
may occur.
While Debby has a chance for limited restrengthening, the
preponderance of the data suggests Debby will not pose an additional,
significant threat to the
East Coast this weekend, heading for the open waters of the
Atlantic Ocean. However, that forecast could change, so interests in
the Carolinas should continue to monitor the progress of Debby.
Incidentally, Debby has become the record earliest-in-season
4th named Atlantic named storm, leapfrogging Dennis from July 5, 2005.
In an average year, the 4th named storm would have occurred by August
23. So, in terms of named storm counts, we're roughly two months ahead
of the pace. That said, there is no correlation between a fast start to
the season and the degree of activity of the rest of the season.
